Impact of screening for HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers: a microsimulation-based modeling study. We estimated the impact of screening on morbidity and mortality of HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer among US men aged 45-79 years. We developed an individual-level, state-transition natural history microsimulation model to estimate the impact of screening using oral HPV16 detection, HPV16-E6 = 54,881,311), 163,958 clinically diagnosed HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers and 32,009 deaths would occur through age 84 in the absence of screening. Assuming very-fast progression, 4%, 20%, 31%, and 60% of these cancers would be detected by one-off, 5-yearly, 3-yearly, and annual screening. Annual screening (very-fast progression) could reduce the number of cancers diagnosed at advanced stages (AJCC 7